The Official 17-18 "Bitch about the Weather" thread

[Goose]

That three hour flight change might be enough to get you a refund without having to pay change fees.

interesting thought but I doubt it. probably falls barely under some clause rule.
But my luck I do that and tell has a couple 3 foot blizzards..lol and the place then chose end up with a warm rainy winter..lol
Just shoot me now and end the misery.

 

[Goose]

I'm sure everyone has stories about how they really needed to wash their gunked-up car, because it looked so awful, and within 24 hours after the wash job, it rained or snowed, and the car was all gunked-up again and we felt like we wasted our time washing it. So what we need to do to get it to snow, is for all of us to wash our cars. Today. Wax them, too. That'll bring a big storm.

When I was a senior at Bear Creek High School, a few miles east of Morrison, Colorado, the student body decided to have a car show. The show was staged about a week or so before the end of the school year. Everybody washed and waxed their cars. We had 50-60 cars, including rods, customs and a couple of race cars. I took a ribbon for 4th place in the Stock Class with my '63 Chevy Impala Sport Coupe.

A few days after the car show, there was a tremendous rain storm, centered around Morrison and the Bear Creek canyon to the west. Bear Creek flooded, damaging Morrison and homes and businesses down into Denver and the confluence of Bear Creek with the Platte River. The flood triggered the construction of the Mount Carbon Dam, to prevent future flooding. All because a bunch of high school kids washed their cars at the same time.

So, let's all wash our cars, Right? The magnificent pow will be glorious!

Or just mistakenly happen to leave our car windows open and then we'll get a 2 foot blizzard.

 

[dbostedo]

ok, dbostedo is going to become angry with these pleasantries.

So...SO.. angry...

 

[jack97]

JB shows the models and teleconnections are breaking the ridge ,The cold is coming into the parts of Utah and CO around Xmas, Precip (non crystalline) is coming as well.

 

[Blue Streak]

JB?

 

[Jellybeans1000]

JB?

Joe Bastardi. He's a weather forecaster. I don't really see the relevance of posting him, as he is terrible.

 

[Blue Streak]

JB?

Joe Bastardi. He's a weather forecaster. I don't really see the relevance of posting him, as he is terrible.

Ah. Got it.

 

[Started at 53]

It’s snowing in Deer Valley.... but only gonna be a dusting

Sure is pretty tho

 

[dbostedo]

... but only gonna be a dusting

Again I'll take it... but you're skating on thin ice there Jay...

 

[Jacob]

It's snowing yet again in the Alps. But, because of all of the snow that's fallen this week, it means another day of widespread lift closures.

It's 9:45, and the only lifts running at the moment are the two for the beginner terrain at the base. With the avalanche danger and low visibility, it's too dangerous to hike for turns as well.

So, we sit and wait.

 

[jack97]

Joe Bastardi. He's a weather forecaster. I don't really see the relevance of posting him, as he is terrible.

I got a chuckle from the above. JB has been forecasting for a while and was the top forecaster at Accuweather. This is a site that was started in the late 70s, he along with Abrams made that site relevant . Presently he is the lead forecaster for Weatherbell, a private company that competes with others as well as the NWS. Essentially, if they are not accurate they are out of business, seems to me they are doing fine.

JB and Weatherbell lays out there forecast 3 to 4 months in advance for all to see at there site, it appears to be tracking to current conditions. About two months ago, the GFS had December warm in the east and normal in the west and was completely wrong, at least JB had the guts to spell out what he saw and more importantly was right about this. Precip is tough and he still relies on the GFS but only if it correlates to other teleconnections. Below is a link where he made a forecast for the east done in most likely early November..... IMO, he has nailed it up to now.

https://www.pugski.com/threads/psa-north-east-get-ready.6994/

 

[Bigtinnie]

I got a chuckle from the above. JB has been forecasting for a while and was the top forecaster at Accuweather. This is a site that was started in the late 70s, he along with Abrams made that site relevant . Presently he is the lead forecaster for Weatherbell, a private company that competes with others as well as the NWS. Essentially, if they are not accurate they are out of business, seems to me they are doing fine.

JB and Weatherbell lays out there forecast 3 to 4 months in advance for all to see at there site, it appears to be tracking to current conditions. About two months ago, the GFS had December warm in the east and normal in the west and was completely wrong, at least JB had the guts to spell out what he saw and more importantly was right about this. Precip is tough and he still relies on the GFS but only if it correlates to other teleconnections. Below is a link where he made a forecast for the east done in most likely early November..... IMO, he has nailed it up to now.

https://www.pugski.com/threads/psa-north-east-get-ready.6994/

So what does he say about early January for the west coast?

 

[jack97]

So what does he say about early January for the west coast?

The ridge in the NW will break or broken already, precip will be coming in the next two weeks. The mid to lower part of CA will lose the heat pretty soon and rain will be coming.

JB provides a daily summary Mon thru Frid, click on the "Public Videos" at the upper right of the page. Subscribers get a more detail forecast and sometimes 1-2 month in advance if he sees a clear pattern,

https://www.weatherbell.com/premium

 

[jack97]

^^^ throw in Accuweather as well, they are forecasting a precip pattern for NW and parts of the West later this month.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

I got a chuckle from the above. JB has been forecasting for a while and was the top forecaster at Accuweather. This is a site that was started in the late 70s, he along with Abrams made that site relevant . Presently he is the lead forecaster for Weatherbell, a private company that competes with others as well as the NWS. Essentially, if they are not accurate they are out of business, seems to me they are doing fine.

JB and Weatherbell lays out there forecast 3 to 4 months in advance for all to see at there site, it appears to be tracking to current conditions. About two months ago, the GFS had December warm in the east and normal in the west and was completely wrong, at least JB had the guts to spell out what he saw and more importantly was right about this. Precip is tough and he still relies on the GFS but only if it correlates to other teleconnections. Below is a link where he made a forecast for the east done in most likely early November..... IMO, he has nailed it up to now.

https://www.pugski.com/threads/psa-north-east-get-ready.6994/

With all due respect to him, JB is a rubbish forecaster. Half of his tweets show how little he understands the weather pattern. His bio?
The other half is anti AGW rubbish. I don't bother watching his WxBell stuff, but the overwhelming verdict from actually good mets is he is worthless. The real talent at WxBell was Maue, and he has left. Once he completes his site, WxBell will die, as it won't be the exclusive site with it's models. Nobody signs up to WxBell for JB, there are much better private consulting weather companies than them. WxBell doesn't compete with the NWS. I don't think you understand what private forecasting companies are for.

GFS doesn't run models out to two months, that would have been CFS. It is rubbish, an amateur could see that the East was going to get a cold December. He still relies on the GFS? What a joker.

Anyway, I think I have made my (and basically most mets) opinion on him heard.

 

[jack97]

With all due respect to him, JB is a rubbish forecaster. Half of his tweets show how little he understands the weather pattern. His bio?
The other half is anti AGW rubbish. I don't bother watching his WxBell stuff, but the overwhelming verdict from actually good mets is he is worthless. The real talent at WxBell was Maue, and he has left. Once he completes his site, WxBell will die, as it won't be the exclusive site with it's models. Nobody signs up to WxBell for JB, there are much better private consulting weather companies than them. WxBell doesn't compete with the NWS. I don't think you understand what private forecasting companies are for.

GFS doesn't run models out to two months, that would have been CFS. It is rubbish, an amateur could see that the East was going to get a cold December. He still relies on the GFS? What a joker.

Anyway, I think I have made my (and basically most mets) opinion on him heard.

Weatherbell and JB uses all the tools they believe useful including analogs, not saying the analogs will be 100% accurate all the time but he has been nailing it and if you have been forecasting for over 40 years, you have to pretty darn good. JB along Aleo knows the GFS can't forcecast two months out, that's why they have a competitive advantage.

As for Ryan Maue, again I got another chuckle, he took a adjunct position in the Cato where Patrick Micheals and Richard Linzden resides, The later along with most in Cato believe AGW is non science.



So enlighten me. What is the purpose of a private forecasting companies?.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

JB along Aleo knows the GFS can't forcecast two months out

Yeah they know that, because it does not forecast beyond 16 days. Everybody knows that.

He has not been nailing anything. Are you trying to troll me, because it's not working very well at all?

 

[WheatKing]

Just gotta whine/vent for a minute.. it's absolutely nuking outside right now.. and it's COLD.. 12F so it's all nice and fluffy.. i'm stuck in the office, the hill opens at 3pm today for the year, but i need to go home and plow, so tonight is out.. tomorrow is out because of other commitments, Sunday i have to work at the barn and there is no night skiing.. so it's probably out.. and Monday..

Monday, the day i could probably go skiing.. it's supposed to go to 39 and up to an inch of frickin RAIN...

ARGH.. I hope this isn't how my whole season is gonna go..

I might just harness the horse put the rock skis on and go ski-joring tonight..

 

[Jilly]

Similar problems @WheatKing. Except my boots are in Tremblant. Brought the skis home to tune.....Love the lake effect snow. Place to be at our end of the lake is going to Snow Ridge!!

 

[WheatKing]

I'm down at Lake Erie.. and well.. well over a foot so far today.. and we're looking at another 4-5 hours of lake effect snow.. radar is showing between 4 and 7"/hr... it's BEAUTIFUL outside... gotta pay the bills however.. I'm picking up new skis tomorrow which are 100% unsuited for conditions today (k2 turbo chargers.. waaaahhooooooo).. i'll be able to get them all tuned up for the refroze over groomed crap for day 1 on Wednesday!! i'm happy.. but i'm still mad...