What will ski season look like with the almost guaranteed El Niño winter?
Yes, there are some guaranteed great ski days coming up! Last year was the new baseline for my powder expectations, as we had numerous deep days in CO and UT. All I've gotta do is figure out precisely where and when, and then make sure that's where I'm at. But that's not as easy as it sounds, even with all the awesome data available from Opensnow and other sources. Here's the link with more data and acronyms than you can shake a powder-measuring stick at:
Following an epic 2022-2023 winter for the Western U.S. that featured record snowfall in California and Utah, it's time to...
opensnow.com
I have a friend that worked as a meteorologist at NCAR in Boulder (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Some years ago, he calls up and says "Let's ski Vail tomorrow, it's gonna be dumping!" He was correct, however I should have asked more questions about whether the dumping would be frozen or liquid.
The only thing worse than skiing dust-on-crust under gray skies at Snowmass, is constantly getting texts/photos from friends skiing at Copper the same day, wallowing in feet-deep powder in a stalled-out storm, just about 30 air-miles away. (this was Feb. 7 or 8, 2020).
Last year's forecast was correct about La Nina, but quite wrong about what the impacts would be, with records set in Utah, Colorado, and even in New Mexico and Arizona. The general El Nino expectation is "drive South" that Taos and Telluride will be snowier than Jackson or Big Sky, but if committing to travel plans now, that's about 1% better odds than flipping a coin, especially when attempting to plan specific dates.
My strategy for being in the right place at the right time is going to be to attempt to hang out in the "right place" and wait impatiently. Fortunately, the number of days I'm obligated to work equals zero. The number of days I plan to ski equals most of the other winter days.
