PNW might get dumped on.

[Dwight]

Could be a good start to the season.

https://snowbrains.com/5000-mile-lo...orecast-drop-28-80-snow-whistler-next-7-days/

 

[wutangclan]

Meh. That's the peak-altitude forecast. For actual skiable snow, the mid-mountain forecast is what you need to go by, and it shows typical pre-season mixed-precipitation.

 

[Posaune]

Yeah, the Washington Cascades will have some rain and some snow. It's getting ready, but when it gets here it usually comes without a doubt.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Meh. That's the peak-altitude forecast. For actual skiable snow, the mid-mountain forecast is what you need to go by, and it shows typical pre-season mixed-precipitation.

View attachment 31587

I wouldn't call snow-forecast.com as a reliable indicator of snowfall IMHO.

 

[Jilly]

Whistler is calling for 28-80 INCHES in the next 8 days.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Here is the 5 day EC snow forecast, that shows around 100 inches of snowfall along peaks of the BC Coast.

Here is a more restrained version of the EC, the ensemble, which shows a maximum snowfall over the next 10 days of 77 inches.
Looks like an amazing period for British Columbia.

 

[wutangclan]

Again, I say "meh". Those "snow accumulation" forecasts show no local detail and no breakdown by freezing level. I've skied Whistler every week of every winter for the last 15 years and I actually think snow-forecast.com isn't that bad. The precip quantities are iffy, but the important figure around here is the FREEZING LEVEL, which fluctuates so frequently and significantly. Whatever snow falls in the next week will be washed away by our PNW rain when the mountain top temperature jumps to 10C again. The real snow that sticks and stays frozen will arrive in November at the earliest, possibly as late as December.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Those "snow accumulation" forecasts show no local detail and no breakdown by freezing level

Yeah unfortunately that's the way they come. Would the below EC 5 day snow accum forecast be better?

I've skied Whistler every week of every winter for the last 15 years and I actually think snow-forecast.com isn't that bad.

Great! I would love to be skiing every week of the season, so well done to yourself for getting in that position. However local knowledge doesn't allow you to make better predictions. I let this statement from a friend from another forum say it.

Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have.

What locals do have is a knowledge of how the weather is going to impact the resort (and where the best powder is)

Snow-forecast.com is a well made site and the charts are very nice and pretty. However it is based off the GFS weather model, and it is not well known as a good snowfall model. The best weather models are the ECMWF (or Euro) and UKMO models. Most of my weather mates don't rely on it. If you have only a minute, and what see what the weather in your resort will be like, snow-forecast.com does an okay job of it. However if you want to properly analyse how much snow is going to fall, you use the Euro or U.K. models, to check the GFS model.

You can get Freezing levels from most weather model sites. EC is preferable, UKMO don't do Freezing levels I believe. Mesoscale models are much better at that sort of thing.

 

[wutangclan]

That pretty map tells me nothing about freezing levels at Whistler. I am not an experienced specialist who can dig through the "weather model sites" that you mention. What altitude are those snow accumulation forecasts for? "100 inches of snowfall along peaks of the BC Coast" is pretty useless if it's raining mid-mountain, and that amount of skiable snow falling mid-mountain in October is unheard of.

I'm happy to be proven wrong (we'll know next week), but for the moment I think y'all are a tad over-excited for nuttin.

 

[noncrazycanuck]

I find the best weather info for Whistler and Sea to Sky corridor is the Wayne Flann Avalance Blog
updated most days through the season

 

[PTskier]

The atmospheric rivers that bring huge amounts of moisture are usually too warm. Strong storms out of the Gulf of Alaska bring good snow to the PNW. The maritime climate is always iffy. Powder one week, r̶a̶i̶n̶ Cascade clear flake the next week, Cascade concrete (or Garibaldi glop) the week after that is no surprise.

 

[Jacques]

Bachelor has some snow now.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

That pretty map tells me nothing about freezing levels at Whistler. I am not an experienced specialist who can dig through the "weather model sites" that you mention. What altitude are those snow accumulation forecasts for? "100 inches of snowfall along peaks of the BC Coast" is pretty useless if it's raining mid-mountain, and that amount of skiable snow falling mid-mountain in October is unheard of.

I'm happy to be proven wrong (we'll know next week), but for the moment I think y'all are a tad over-excited for nuttin.

To determine the snow level, I personally use 850hPa (1500m) temperature forecasts, because that provides the best outlook for temperature, rather than the raw freezing level charts. Like I said, if you want the simple FL from snow-forecast.com, go ahead. I'm not stopping you. Just know that the charts are not to be relied on. Better to trust proper charts or a meterologist.

Anyway Snow Level forecast for the Whistler region, based on my analysis of the EC modelling.
Wednesday ~1100-1200m.
Thursday ~1800m.
Friday ~1500m, colder later.
Saturday ~900-1000m, down to potentially ~600m at night.
Sunday ~1300m.
Monday ~1200-1500m.

I find the best weather info for Whistler and Sea to Sky corridor is the Wayne Flann Avalance Blog
updated most days through the season

Definitely, avy blogs are a great source of info.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

The atmospheric rivers that bring huge amounts of moisture are usually too warm. Strong storms out of the Gulf of Alaska bring good snow to the PNW. The maritime climate is always iffy. Powder one week, r̶a̶i̶n̶ Cascade clear flake the next week, Cascade concrete (or Garibaldi glop) the week after that is no surprise.

Yeah they aren't known for their very cold temperatures, however they do have a massive impact on snowfall, even if the snow is not very good quality. Tahoe and the Sierra Nevada got dumped on by atmospheric rivers last season, maybe it is the PNW's turn.

 

[TonyC]

This may not impact when Whistler can open but it is likely the start of base building in the high alpine. This is not uncommon in the PNW. So when Whistler does get open in December, there is a tendency for the upper steeps to be ready or close to ready much earlier in the season than at other ski areas with comparable terrain. This happens regularly enough that Extremely Canadian schedules its steep clinics starting mid-December.

And yes these early snows usually are all rain in the Washington State areas. Hood and Bachelor are high enough to get some snow sometimes, but I think the Whistler alpine gets more.

 

[wutangclan]

Wow looks like jellybeans was right and I was quite wrong, but happily so. It's dumping snow all the way down to the village in Whistler. I guess I've been traumatized by too many early season disappointments to allow myself to get my hopes up, so am always looking for the dark cloud that is attached to any silver lining!!!

All that said, what usually happens is that it warms up a week later and gets washed away by our PNW rain, so that we're still skiing on cement with exposed rocks and dirt right up until Christmas.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Wow looks like jellybeans was right and I was quite wrong, but happily so. It's dumping snow all the way down to the village in Whistler. I guess I've been traumatized by too many early season disappointments to allow myself to get my hopes up, so am always looking for the dark cloud that is attached to any silver lining!!!

All that said, what usually happens is that it warms up a week later and gets washed away by our PNW rain, so that we're still skiing on cement with exposed rocks and dirt right up until Christmas.

This year looks like an early start IMO, from a forecaster's perspective. I would be interested in your opinion, as you live in the region?

It will probably be washed away down low, but it should hold in the high alpine. But we are expecting a shift, focusing cold weather in the Eastern side of the continent for next week.

 

[markojp]

The atmospheric rivers that bring huge amounts of moisture are usually too warm. Strong storms out of the Gulf of Alaska bring good snow to the PNW. The maritime climate is always iffy. Powder one week, r̶a̶i̶n̶ Cascade clear flake the next week, Cascade concrete (or Garibaldi glop) the week after that is no surprise.

And yet, somehow we usually manage to have a winter and ski season from mid-late November through April. Go figure, eh? Why the Eeyore worldview? We've got it pretty good all in all.

 

[dbostedo]

Some WB webcam captures :

Whistler Peak

Glacier Express

7th Heaven

Whistler

 

[Jellybeans1000]

And yet, somehow we usually manage to have a winter and ski season from mid-late November through April. Go figure, eh? Why the Eeyore worldview? We've got it pretty good all in all.

Yeah, they aren't really that warm. And it gave Tahoe an amazing season last year.